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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."