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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.